The Hamilton Larkhall and Stonehouse By Election A Three Horse Race

In Scotland’s latest by-election, it’s SNP vs Labour vs Reform UK

By Liv Thomson

Here in Hamilton, voters are gearing up for what could be a particularly significant Holyrood by-election.

SNP MSP Christina McKelvie had been the sitting MSP for Hamilton, Stonehouse and Larkhall since 2011; a champion of social justice and community issues in the eyes of many.

Her death in March has left a void in Scottish politics that now needs to be filled – but by who?

Having previously worked in this area for almost eight years myself – and as a native Scot – it’s hard to get away from how staunchly the SNP used to be embedded here. Ever since the independence vote in 2014, and even since Brexit in 2016, talk of any other party was almost unheard of. But now, the shift in the air is clear. It has been since last year’s General Election, when the SNP suffered heavy losses in the face of Labour’s climb back to power.

There’s a whole host of issues that have seen people in the area lose trust in both Holyrood and Westminster. Amist party scandal, cost of living has gone up, and benefits for the vulnerable have been cut, namely the Winter Fuel payment. Scotland was lovely and warm for a few weeks there – some places even reaching highs of 26 degrees celcius – but any Scot worth their salt knew that wouldn’t last, and if it’s not grey and rainy, it’s cold. First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney says the Winter Fuel payment – which was cut by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer after he took over the country’s reigns last year – will be in pensioners’ bank accounts by St Andrews Day. Furthermore, the First Minister has accused the UK Labour leader – and the party as a whole – of morphing into their own version of the Reform UK party. After the success of Nigel Farage’s party down south in May’s elections – where they took control of 10 English councils – Mr Swinney has outright said that the PM has endeavoured to adopt Reform’s narrative; to make Labour more appealing to the public who are slowly but surely turning their backs on him. 

While Scottish Labour and the SNP are widely considered to be the frontrunners in this by-election, Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has actually said he firmly believes it to be a two-horse race between SNP and Reform. This is arguably a founded claim, as Reform UK took second place in a local council by-election in Clydebank which was won by the SNP. Despite winning, the SNP dropped almost 17% in first preference votes, compared to Labour losing 12% while Reform won 26.3% of the vote. Mr Tice said the result showed people in Scotland want to talk about issues like immigration – one of Reform’s key topics. Even former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has pointed out that Labour is “getting the challenge to Reform woefully wrong”.

It’s clear that Reform UK is gaining traction in Scotland, and this momentum has raised concerns within Labour about the potential impact on their prospects in the Hamilton by-election

So are the people of Hamilton really disillusioned with Labour and the SNP? Is change on the horizon? With ten candidates vying for the seat, the by-election is poised to be a significant test of political dynamics in Scotland – and how the future landscape north of the border could look in the years to come.

Published: 04/06/2025 by Radio NewsHub